The Great Game
Photo Credit The Guardian
In the decade that has passed since Libya’s February 17th revolution, one cannot easily determine whether the story reads as an obituary or a love letter. Certainly, it was not the near dream-like sequence of events that took place in neighbouring Tunisia, which despite the inevitable challenges remains to date a functional democracy. Equally, events in Libya did not replicate those of Syria and the ensuing human tragedy; nor did it result in the theft of the revolution, as it did in neighbouring Egypt at the hands of it’s military. Unique in many ways, the Libyan experience shares elements with all of its neighbours.
Early signs of promise were there from the start; a peaceful transition of power from the National Transitional Council (NTC), Libya’s official anti-Gaddafi opposition and the political custodia of the revolution to the country’s first democratic elections to select the General National Congress (GNC) in 2012. This was followed by two brutal civil wars first in 2014 and again in 2019 following two attempted military coup d’etats by a former Gaddafi-era official, General Khalifa Haftar. In the last year Tunisia has hosted Libya’s political talks, alongside Egypt who supported the latest civil war that drew thousands of Syrian mercenaries supplied by Turkey and the United Arab Emirates and Russia to fight one another.
The role the international community played in securing the conditions to support Libya’s revolution are well known, namely the high profile passing of UN Security Council (UNSC) resolution 1973 in March 2011 under the doctrine of the ‘Responsibility to protect’. Often missing from the commentary surrounding Libya’s revolution and its aftermath is how it opened the floodgates to a new global disorder that established the conditions for a new Great Game that has drawn new and old powers to it’s vast expanse in a battle for influence, interest and ideology.
The diplomatic rifts and regional aftershock that followed the NATO-led campaign Operation Unified Protector (OUP) culminating in the overthrow of Mu’ammar al Gaddafi and his Jamahiriya after 42 years of autocratic rule continues to be felt a decade on. The US took a step back to ‘lead from behind’ during the NATO campaign marking a broad unwillingness to carry the burden of the campaign. The Arab Spring coincided with America’s decision to withdraw from the Middle East and North Africa, leaving a void to be filled by others. Washington delegated the operation to European partners, who were increasingly pulling in different directions and unable to fill the void. At a diplomatic level, the NATO operation’s mission creep established a new bipolar faultline amongst the permanent members of the UNSC - in particular Russia and China vs the US, UK, and France - that have paralysed it since 2011 from it’s conceived vision of managing tensions, preventing military confrontations and preserving peace and stability.
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